This week Nat looks at the intriguing story behind which NFL team may end up with consensus No. 1 draft pick Andrew Luck from Stanford. 

As usual, there are a number of interesting narratives in the NFL this season. Is there anyone that can deal with the Packers in the NFC – or indeed the whole league for that matter? What has gone wrong with the self proclaimed Dream Team in Philly?

I’m not even gonna mention Tebow – but if you’re interested in the most white hot phenom in sports right now you can read my last column on the Denver QB right here.

But perhaps the most intriguing storyline of all is the fact that a significant number of fans, supporting dead in the water teams, are willing them to lose as many games as possible, to enable them to have the best chance of landing the Number One Draft Pick. Or as it’s become commonly known – SuckForLuck.

Andrew Luck, the Stanford QB, is the designated Number 1 Pick in the 2012 Draft according to every draft expert in the entire world. Even the late, great Al Davis – known for his erratic choices in his latter years that seemingly ranked speed in a player as more important than all other attributes combined – would have grabbed Luck with both hands, should his Raiders have the option.

Luck has already been anointed as the NFL’s next “Great Quarterback” and is expected to vault into the elite class of Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers within a short time of turning pro (which will be a year late as he actually turned down the chance to declare for nthe NFL darft last season). He’s the guy you can build a franchise round, they say. Here’s the real deal.

He has the intelligence, maturity, throwing technique (Tebow’s Achilles Heel, of course) and understanding of a pro-style offense (supposedly Cam Newton’s main issue, though he’s not faring too badly these days) not seen for a long time at that age. Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers & Co. didn’t even get close to this kind of universal acclaim when they came out. His reputation precedes him so powerfully, that you’ll find NFL fans the world over who haven’t even seen Luck take a snap that’ll tell you he’s the best quarterback available in the Draft since Peyton Manning. The best College QB I’ve ever seen, they’ll assure you.

And as for the team owners, remember that the Number One pick is much sexier now that the re-aligned Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) means it’s not as huge a financial risk as it used to be. So the chance of busting out an Al Davis / JaMarcus Russell style over-reach is less painful. Taking a QB – as opposed to a blindside tackle who you can at least farm out to the other side, and then to guard if he doesn’t work out – is less risky than it used to be.

Yep – whichever way you cut it, Andrew Luck is the future, and teams are falling over themselves to get him; leading to all manner of conspiracy theories that teams are deliberately tanking to stand a shot of getting him. Ironically, I heard more than a few wise heads suggest at the start of the season that Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers’ Head Coach and Luck’s former coach at Stanford, started the hitherto hapless Alex Smith at QB to ensure San Fran would be in the cellar. Smith seems to be having the last laugh there – as the Niners have just clinched the NFC West. Although a 64-2 NFC Championship blowout is on the cards for them.

Of course, there is one team that no one saw in the box seat for Luck, and the fact that they seem to be storming their way to a perfect 0-16 record, thus guaranteeing the Number One pick, poses some real conundrums for Bill Polian and his board in Indianapolis. What was previously unthinkable – namely drafting Luck and trading Peyton Manning – is an idea gaining momentum in various quarters of the media. The extent of Manning’s neck injury is unclear and even if he comes back fighting fit and playing to the same level, he’s got perhaps four more years left in him. So do they take Luck, let him sit and learn from Manning? … thus creating the most expensive back up in the history of the game, but also ensuring a fluent succession with a guy capable of running the table for the next 10 to12 years – or do they gamble, trade Manning and start their future right now?

Another variable is for them to draft Luck, let him sit for a while, and then trade him to a desperate suitor (as the Eagles did with Kevin Kolb). But the Eagles had Michael Vick by then – not a spring chicken but younger than Manning – and they clearly had a plan grabbing Vince Young, the logical Number 2 to Vick in that style of offense.

So many options – and that’s just the Colts. The Seahawks, Browns, Jaguars are all in the running and they really need a QB so they could well trade up if they don’t end up with the worst record. And let’s face it gang, we could do with some crazy horse-trading on Draft Day after the vanilla CBA induced inertia of this year.

Yet there is one aspect that isn’t being considered at all. It’s all very well Sucking for Luck. But what if Luck Sucks? We’re all assuming he’s going to be great. What if he’s not?

Remember Ryan Leaf? Selected second overall behind Peyton Manning in the 1998 draft – and many scouts couldn’t decide between them. Doesn’t matter who goes 1 or 2, they said. Both these guys are going to have All-Pro Careers. These weren’t mid-second round developmental players that may end up with an OK career. These were NFL locks. Yet Leaf turned out to be one of the biggest draft busts of all time.

And out of the most recent drafts, and number one QB picks, the aformentioned JaMarcus is now out of the league and out of most people’s minds. Of other recent highly-rated QB recruits, Matt Stafford is good but injury prone and Sam Bradford is having a torrid time in St. Louis after a promising start. None of those guys may have been dead certs in precisely the same way that people say Luck is going to be, but the principle remains. These are golden boys in the second golden age of the QB. And none of them look like being another Brady (a sixth round pick BTW) or Manning.

In some respects, you sense that the Colts hierarchy hope they can land a few wins just to avoid the complex decision. Either way, whoever does end up with Andrew Luck would do well to remember that they don’t necessarily have a sure thing. Somewhere, Joey Harrington is reading this, and nodding sagely.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL ON ESPN AMERICA

The NCAA College Football season on ESPN America
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NAT COOMBS is a writer and broadcaster who hosts the chat show Talk of The Terrace on our partner channel ESPN, and both NFL & MLB coverage on BBC Radio Five Live. He also anchors the US sports podcast Americarnage. Follow Nat on Twitter

Tim Tebow is the biggest sporting star in the NFL. OK, Terrence “Mount” Cody (Ravens) is technically bigger at 350 pounds, but Tebow is without doubt the shiniest star in the US sporting galaxy.

And the fact there is an army of people shouting as loudly as they can that Tebow simply can’t cut it and will be toast doesn’t appear to be having any effect on his staromoeter – nor, it appears, his ability to keep winning.

In fact, the Tebow brand is being so amplified right now that everyone’s favorite young QB is giving Justin Bieber and Lady Ga-Ga a run for their money as one of the biggest stars in the whole country. On paper it all stacks up.

The Heisman winner who took Florida to the national championship twice, got selected in the first round of the Draft, is the now the established starter in Denver after coming in when the Broncos were 1-4. He’s posted a W/L record of 4-1, to put them at .500 and with a very real shot of the playoffs when a month ago, if you’d suggested that, people would have laughed for longer and louder than I did when someone suggested to me: “I don’t care what you say. The Devil’s Advocate is the best thriller of the last 30 years.”

In an improbable debut as starter, Tebow led his team to late win over Miami, making Denver the first team in NFL history to win a game after being down by at least 15 points with three minutes to play in a game.

Of course, his all American good looks and virtuous, “good guy” demeanor – the latter inspired by his deep seated, and often ridiculed religious faith – have helped fan the flames of celebrity. Kids want to be like him. Parents want their sons to grow up like him and hope their daughters grow up to marry someone like him.

But here’s the thing – and make sure you whisper it because I like the kid and don’t want his feelings hurt. No-one seems to think he’s gonna last.

OK – let me rephrase that. No-one I know with any credible understanding of the NFL considers him a Pro Football Quarterback. For starters, he can’t throw, which tends to be a major hurdle for somebody who’s paid millions of dollars to, well, throw.

Let’s look at his stats this season:

- He’s completed 44.8% of his passes

- He’s passed for 709 yards in 8 games. Yes Einstein that’s under 100 yards per game

- His QB rating is 78.4. Which to be fair is better than John Beck’s. Mind you, so is mine.

It’s not just Tebow’s technique which makes naysayers wary – and in his defense, plenty of players with have lacked decent technique. It’s the fact that this reliance on a combination of his unfazeable drive and ability to run his team to victory irrespective of his clear lack of natural pro level QB ability will surely, at some stage, run out of gas.

But here’s the thing. Until someone sets the precedent, creates the blueprint, is the first, we’re always going to say that he/she/it won’t work because “it’s not how it’s done”. Exactly how many African American Head Coaches were in the NFL before Art Shell?

Sean Alexander won the MVP award in 2006 – when the league was all about running. He sunk without trace 18 months later and now we’re in the golden era of the passer.

Sure, he’s had a poor season, but only 12 months ago everyone was declaring that Michael Vick has redefined the QB position, and that he’s unstoppable.

So there’s time for Tebow, yet. Because things change in the NFL! We could all be sitting here in 18 months time, wondering where the next Tebow is coming from, and chuckling at the days when we used to recognize arm strength – traditionally way over valued (JaMarcus Russell, anyone) as far more important than anything else.

It’s worth pointing out that for all the lack of convention Tebow displays, he has clear intelligence; which is, undoubtedly, one the most important aspects of surviving (in that position) in the pros.

Paradoxically, the increasing sophistication of defenses is also in his favor too. Offensive coordinators will need to continually change things up as schemes and routes get clocked, and Tebow is the master of the unexpected. Who would have forecast the return of the option? Even college teams rarely roll out this old school playbook these days. With his diversity, Tebow will become increasingly more valuable as an offensive asset.

Video Credit: DJ Steve Porter mashes up ESPN’s studio analyst Skip Bayless to create an ultimate Tim Tebow tribute…”All He Does Is Win”

Plus there’s the not inconsiderable fact that Tebow’s (currently) stone cold in the last two minutes of close games. What’s the age old test of a real QB’s mettle? Can he drive downfield, Kosar style, in 120 seconds and bring his team home? Tebow can and has. Plenty of technically more proficient players (yes, Mr. Mcnabb I mean you) have struggled.

And what about his weapons – or lack of? No disrespect but when Eric Dekker is your go-to guy downfield, it’s not exactly the embarrassment of riches that Green Bay has, right?

Another plus point for Tebow is his Broncos are in the stumbling AFC West one game behind the post-Al Davis Raiders. It is not going to take much for Tebow to lead his team into the promised land of the playoffs. And then we’ll see the true test of the man.

Sure, an implosion is possibly on the cards, and two years on he may just be an afterthought. But right now, we can’t write Tebow off until he forces us to do so.

Watch Tim Tebow in action for the Broncos as they take on Philip Rivers and the Chargers on ESPN America (Nov 28th As Live 14:30 CET)
Please check local listings for times and availability.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL ON ESPN AMERICA

Viewers in Europe can watch the NFL season and ESPN’s Monday Night Football
Click here for more details and latest TV schedules, etc.
While viewers in the UK and Irleand can tune in to NFL Monday Night Football on ESPN.
Click here for more details.

The NCAA College Football season is also available throughout Europe on ESPN America
Click here for detailsand latest TV schedules, etc.

When he heard the news that ESPN’s Fantasy Football podcast had won a prestigious industry award, Nat wasn’t sure whether to laugh or cry as the result meant his own podcast had been beaten, but as a guest on the winning podcast he had some cause to celebrate.

Everybody’s favorite bit of the Oscars ceremony – well any Oscar ceremony that doesn’t involve a caffeined up Sally Field deciding to “really go for it this time” – has to be watching the losing nominees clap and smile grudgingly as the winner skips onto the stage and into history. In the unlikely event I end up in that position at the Kodak Theatre, I promise right here, right now, that whatever happens, win or lose, I’ll pull down my trousers to reveal bright pink Speedos, and light a big fat cigar, applauding wildly when done.

Forget losing the Super Bowl, or missing a three-foot putt to win the Ryder Cup, or getting the bronze medal in the Olympic Final. They say that being a runner up in an Awards ceremony is the cruelest miss of all. And one I’ve just had to face first hand in this year’s 2011 Podcast Awards, where my show Americarnage, was nominated as Best Sports Show. And didn’t win. Or, if I’m in a glass half empty mood, lost.

Don’t worry gang, I’m somehow getting through it. BTW I forgot to mention that my guest at the Oscars would be Brian Bosworth in drag. It’s this enduring image that’s getting me through, quite frankly.

Truly, it really was enough for us to be shortlisted amongst thousands of shows, and besides, we lost out to worthy winners, and old mates of mine on the ESPN Fantasy Focus show (check out my guest spot on their podcast). If you lose to friends, it softens the blow. Unless you’re cage fighting.

If you haven’t yet discovered the wonderful world of Sports podcasts – and in particular ESPN’s stable – then you’re missing out more than the guy who said “You fellas go onto the Beach Volleyball final. I’m going stay at home and finish this Sudoku book”

It’s trite to call Podcasting “the new radio” – and inaccurate given the fact that a significant number of the best shows are edited “best of” versions of radio output, but in our generation of on-demand, where a thousand mile an hour life requires broadcasters and content providers to adapt to an audience that wants to watch/listen on their own terms.

Equally, the YouTube generation that we’re all a part of does enable talented voices to emerge who otherwise maybe wouldn’t, but also forces upon us thousands of voices we’d all rather not hear from, rather like being trapped in a Karaoke Bar surrounded by people you don’t know.

So where to start? Well, given the fact I’m a company man through and through, I’ve selected what I consider to be ESPN’s Top 5 Podcasts. Get started with them – and branch out as far and wide as you want.

ESPN FANTASY FOCUS FOOTBALL/BASEBALL
Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz front both a Fantasy Football and Fantasy Baseball shows – published daily.

This sardonically drynamic duo have mastered the difficult balance of being informative yet fun and self-deprecatingly throwaway, and as such are representative of that new generation of sports broadcaster that are as comfortable talking about the Jonas Brothers as they are Chipper Jones’ batting average.

Throw in a loyal and interactive fanbase that underlines a real sense of community and the stewardship of producer Jason Soderberg – aka Pod Vader – and this show is entertaining even if you don’t play Fantasy. And if you do, why the hell aren’t you listening?

THE BS REPORT
Bill Simmons is one of the finest sports writers of his generation and his show – The BS Report – has been a logical extension to his pioneering blend of Pop Culture Sports shtick.

His star power ensures some high profile guests and the variation in the output – one show may devote an hour to the merits of 90’s teen drama Beverly Hills 90210, whilst next day will have Commissioner David Stern discussing the NBA lockout – keeps it refreshing and peppy.

All major sports are covered, plus the Monday show with Cousin Sal – one of Jimmy Kimmel’s crew – investigates the weekly over/under NFL lines, if you’re that way inclined. Usually a few shows a week, most of them around an hour.

MIKE & MIKE IN THE MORNING
One of the best broadcasting duos in any genre, let alone Sports, Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic anchor ESPN Radio’s breakfast show, which is news-based and unsurprisingly has access to the very biggest stars in the American sporting galaxy.

The daily podcast – The Best of Mike & Mike – cuts together all the highlights from the four hours into a sharper chunk a quarter of that length – giving you all the main stories you need to know that day.

Opinionated, but never overstepping the mark as hosts, the two have such a fluent chemistry, and are both able to laugh at themselves as much as each other, which endears them to the listener. Their distinctive styles – Greenberg is the blueprint for a slick, East Coast host, whilst Golic is the former (NFL) player who’s been there and done it – keep the pace going.

THE MICHELLE BEADLE PODCAST
Beadle’s SportsNation co-host Colin Cowherd is the best Sports Shock Jock in the business – though he’d probably hate that term, and devotes four or five minutes ranting against the limitations of it.

One of the newer and brightest stars at ESPN, Beadle is best known as one of the SportsNation presenters, but her podcast is a hidden gem. Funny, quirky and deceptively well informed, Beadle has a widespread appeal – she can hang with the guys, while women love her – but rather than make her too commercially watered down, she’s sharp and opinionated.

Her show – usually weekly – moves around between sports and pop culture seamlessly.

THE THUNDERING HERD
Beadle’s SportsNation co-host Colin Cowherd is the best Sports Shock Jock in the business – though he’d probably hate that term, and devotes four or five minutes ranting against the limitations of it.

His radio show gets a daily “best of” podcast – much like Mike & Mike, but the difference is that Cowherd flies solo for much of it, which means that he often has to fill air with monologues. As a broadcaster, I can assure you that it doesn’t get much harder than this, and Cowherd pulls it off again and again

His abrasive style isn’t everyone’s cup of tea – that’s the point, I guess – and at times he’s deliberately provocative when the story doesn’t necessarily warrant it but it’s all underpinned by a savvy understanding of sports, an insightful mind that isn’t afraid to project an opinion, and the technical smarts to join the dots.

And last but not least …

THE ESPN AMERICA PODCAST
As well as the award-winning ESPN.com podcasts above, your very own ESPN America records its own offering each month. Hosted by Aaron Murphy (aka Murph on Ice), ESPN America’s Director of Programming Patrick Sturgeon (aka blogger Paddy the Brick) and “Big D” Dennis Moloney. This month they are joined by special guests from ESPN.com and flag up future games / shows on the TV channel and discuss the latest sports news from Stateside. This monthly podcast is always worth a listen to keep up to date with what is happening on ESPN America. The latest podcast below features ESPN NHL analyst Barry Melrose and ESPN writer Jim Caple.

NAT & COURTNEY

For a couple of days ESPN America’s NFL columnist was living the dream as NAT got to host the NFL Fan Rally in London where he met NFL legends, the Commish, Cheerleaders, a human beatbox, a Drumline and an Oscar winner.

There are moments in life when I really feel blessed. The birth of both of my children for example. Or winding around the Amalfi Coast on a blazing hot August afternoon. Or that episode of Baywatch when Mitch pulled a prank on the rest of the coastguards and pretended he’d soiled his red swimmers.

Last Saturday, I had another one of those moments. Honored to be asked by the NFL to co-host the International Series Fan Rally in Trafalgar Square, I was standing backstage about 24 inches away from Roger Goodell and Dan Rooney, watching the Tampa Bay Bucs Cheerleaders perform.

Within minutes, I was on the stage, talking to Lauren, Lauren, Nancy and err, Lauren about their time in London. I ask Lauren (number 3) whether she had any tips for my aspiring career as a Cheerleader, which I was seriously considering, though torn between an offer I’d received from the Chicago Bears Drumline marching band – I play the spoons moderately well.

Lauren proceeded to show me her hair flick – which involves rolling her head 360 degrees shaking her hair at the same time. As I pointed out to her, unless I grow hair like a mid 80’s Jon Bon Jovi (again) I’d struggle to pull it off. So I asked her for another little move, or, as Lauren volunteered “I can show you one of my ditties”

I’m too much of a gentleman to take a comment like that to the gutter – but not far enough removed from my stand up days to milk it (so to speak) for as much as I could to the thousands of NFLers assembled around Nelson’s Column. Lauren saw the funny side – as did her squad mates when I asked the crowd if they thought I could “pull off” one of the red spangly outfits. That got a laugh too. My wife hasn’t spoken to me for 4 days, mind. Which is longer than usual.

CLICK HERE for a chance to win a signed Tampa Bay Buccaneer Cheerleaders’ calendar signed by four of the lovely ladies.

The Fan Rally was day 2 of a 3-day series of events, culminating in the well fought win for the Bears at Wembley, that took place across London wowing the established fan base and making some new friends along the way. Friday night, also in Trafalgar Square, saw a screening of Jerry Maguire, the great Cameron Crowe movie about a sports agent with a conscience. I chatted to the Oscar Winner Cuba Gooding Jr – what a chap – in front of the thousands who braved the sharp October night, most of whom braved it till the end, though the fact there wasn’t a dry eye in the house has more to do with the 24 degree Fahrenheit than the weepy ending. Good to see the seminal line “You had me at hello” got a sizeable cheer.

The Fan Rally on Saturday was 5 hours of non stop entertainment – with acts like Freestylers, Maverick Sabre and the wonderful Beardyman – taking their turn around some bona fide NFL legends, including Marshall Faulk, Richard Dent and Jerome Bettis – the irony of The Bus being interviewed whilst framed by about 47 actual red buses not lost on most of us.

WHO ARE YOU? THE MAGIC BUS: Jerome You Bettis, You Bettis You Bet!!

The Commish ensured that we were all on best behavior – whilst coaches and players from both the Bucs and Bears rocked up and did a sterling job in geeing up their UK fanbase, who were logically the most partisan members of the vast array of jerseys on show, including one brave soul in a Carson Palmer Bengals shirt. (Disappointingly didn’t get to see a Joey Harrington/Lions jersey. But there’s always next year)

MOST OBSCURE RETRO JERSEY: No sign of Joey but "Steve" was at Wembley.

Once again those assembled in London did the Rest of the World proud in demonstrating genuine passion, volume of support and, most importantly, literacy of the game, which was the biggest concern when the International Series was first touted. Predictably, reports flew around the ‘Net about how “London is apathetic about the NFL game” based on vox popping passers by in the street.

This is, of course, nonsense. The ratio of tourists to Brits in many parts of the West End of London is at least 50/50, and of either constituency, you could suggest almost any sporting event (other than the Premier League) and be sure to be met with apathy. It doesn’t mean a thing. What are the cynics expecting? Thousands of fans congregating in advance of a sporting event congregating to celebrate their mutual passion? Oh, hang on….

What clearly does matter is not the predictable hackery of the naysayers, but the NFL’s clear support of the International Series – which will hopefully see 2 UK games next year – a growing audience and interest in the game, as borne out by increased TV & Radio viewing / listening figures year on year.

Though selfishly of course, 2 games next year and the success of the International Series to boot only means only one thing to me. Two sets of cheerleaders to chat to. And marching drum bands, of course (coughs!).

AMERICAN FOOTBALL ON ESPN AMERICA

Viewers in Europe can watch the NFL season and ESPN’s Monday Night Football
Click here for more details and latest TV schedules, etc.
While viewers in the UK and Irleand can tune in to NFL Monday Night Football on ESPN.
Click here for more details.

The NCAA College Football season is also available throughout Europe on ESPN America
Click here for detailsand latest TV schedules, etc.

For the neutral baseball fan Nat has devised a game to play during the Fall Classic to help prevent ESPN America viewers falling asleep in the early hours.

Sure, we all know the World Series, along with the Super Bowl, the World Cup and (insert any women’s beach volleyball event here) is one of the stand out events in the world of sports. But the edge is always slightly taken off if your team hasn’t made it. Or even come close.

And as a Cubs fan, I’ve had years of “not coming close” and have had plenty of experience in making each and every Cub-less World Series as much fun as possible. Though, I am not sure what I’ll do if Theo E. guides the Lovables to the Promised Land in 2012.

Anyway, here’s a guide to how to get the most out of your Fall Classic viewing experience as a neutral – and hell, if you’re a Cardinals or Rangers fan you can play it too – may take the stress out of the whole thing!

The game is simple.

Watch the World Series with your friends live on ESPN America [bonus points for a gratuitous plug! Ed]. Award points to the first person to spot any of the things listed below.

SPOTTERS’ POINTS LIST

“A list” celebrity in the crowd: 50 points

Non-baseball sports star in the crowd: 75 points

“Celebrity who you thought was dead” in the crowd: 200 points

Mismatched couple (in separate Rangers / Cardinals caps) in the crowd: 100 points

Tony LaRussa wearing shades: 50 points

Ron Washington wearing shades: 1 point

Ron Washington smiling: 10 points

Tony LaRussa Smiling: 100 points

Squirrel spotted in St Louis: 10 points

Live squirrel spot in Texas: 50 points (road kill does not count)

Squirrel warming up in bullpen: 500 points (Jason Motte’s beard does not count as a furry animal)

Nolan Ryan warming up in Texas bullpen: 1500 points

Grand Slam Home Run: 10 points (treble if by an AL pitcher)

Stolen Base: 5 points

Stolen Base by a Pitcher: 25 points

Stolen Base by Yadier Molina: 75 points

Error: 10 points

Error by Adrian Beltre: 50 points

Commissioner Bud Selig asleep: 250 points

Customize your game:
Add your own things to spot during the World Series. Any suggestions? Add them in the comments box below. And enjoy the Series!

Other World Series articles on ESPN America.com

Rick Sutclife World Series preview

MLB Fan Cave Guys Season highlights

Click here for TV details of the best of seven game World Series on ESPN America.

Nat reflects on the amazing finish to a MLB season that almost refused to die and looks ahead at a fascinating postseason that will hopefully live long in the memory…

I’ve seen some sensational sporting moments in my time. Stevie Gerrard’s last gasp equalizer in the Liverpool/West Ham FA Cup Final in 2006, much as it pained me and my fellow Hammers; fans. David Tyree’s ball-to-helmet catch in the Giants/Patriots Super Bowl 42, which subconciously increased the sale of Velcro by 400% across New York. Or how about Macho Man Randy Savage marrying Miss Elizabeth at Summer Slam in 1991? C’mon, give me that last one, gang. It was one of the most romantic things I’ve ever seen on the small screen.

The 12th inning walk off home run against the Yankees, by Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria, was one of those moments, not least because it represented the final knockout blow in the greatest collapse in Baseball history. Step forward the 2011 Boston Red Sox. With a 9 game lead on September 2nd, they lost 20 of 27 games in September, allowing the unfancied minnow Rays to pip them at the post for the American League Wildcard spot.

BESTIN' RED SOX: Evan goes Long-Long-Longoria for a walkoff into the playoffs.

The Sox are in wholly unfamiliar territory – and not because of the greatest nosedive baseball has ever seen. For years they’ve been the perennial American League underachievers – and by association considered rather fondly by most – but they’re currently the undisputed laughing stock of American sports. To paraphrase the rappers Nas & P.Diddy – People Hate Them Now. And that’s gotta hurt. (Ironically, I suspect that either Nas or Diddy would probably have been a better offensive threat than Marco Scutaro)

Sure, the Red Sox are typically used to glorious defeat – less acute since 2004 yet more than just a distant memory – but outside of New York, they haven’t dealt with the embarrassing glow of felled Goliaths that everyone is pointing and laughing at. Which, incidentally, is rather like how my stag night ended up.

The universal glee that met Boston’s nosedive is predictable enough. Much like their European soccer counterparts (Chelsea, Man City, et al) who spend big and have to wear the fundamental unpopularity that comes with that, the Red Sox came into this season with high hopes. The owners have spent $340 million dollars on players over the last two years and don’t have a playoff berth to show for it … let alone a championship.

BUSTIN' RED FACED: Carl Crawford walks away from a nightmare season

This offseason, the much-vaunted dual pick up of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford – the two biggest free agents on the market, and potential targets of fierce rivals the Yankees – strenghtened an already impressive roster. The Boston Herald suggested the 2011 Red Sox may be “the greatest ever.” Everyone from the top dogs at ESPN TV in Bristol, Connecticut to the beer guzzling regulars at O’Hara’s Bar & Grill in Alberquerque, New Mexico picked them -nay, inked them in with TO’s Sharpie pen – for the World Series.

So who is to blame? New left fielder Crawford is one of many who has posted a disappointing season, and it was somewhat ironic that his failed attempt to catch the ball was the crucial play in the Sox’s final night loss to Baltimore. “I don’t think I’ve ever been a part of something like this,” admitted Crawford. And it’s unlikely he ever will again. Unless my softball team the Chevy Chasers reform and we draft him in as a ringer.

While Crawford hardly excelled himself – and the Sox were peppered with injuries – the collapse can be directly attributed to their starting pitching. In September, Boston’s rotation went 4-13, with an ERA 7.08, giving up 101 earned runs in 128 innings. Now that’s Chevy Chaser ball.

Fortunately for the Sox they’ve got fellow whipping boys the Atlanta Braves to share the ignominious corner of head hanging shame with – wearing their National League dunce’s cap, naturally. Think Boston’s September funk was embarrassing? Check out Atlanta’s September Wall of Shame :

-The Braves scored an average 3.2 runs per game. The only teams worse were the San Diego Padres and the Houston Astros. Which is a bit like saying the only people uglier than you are John Merrick and Herman Munster.

-They hit.195 with runners in scoring position. The icing on the cake of choke if ever I saw one.

-They were 5 for 32 with runners in scoring position in their last 5 games? Guess what? They lost them all.

BURSTIN' RED BIRDS: Card's Chris Carpenter's buddies shower him in Buds.

Tony La Russa and his Cardinals were the main beneficiaries, and everyone’s lock for the Series, the Phillies, won’t like that one little bit as they were defeated 6 out 9 times by St Louis during the regular season. The Yin to the Braves’ Yang, the Cards won 21 of their final 29 which makes them the hottest team in baseball.

The beauty of this season is that any of the eight remaining teams could go all the way – though I wouldn’t back against TLR, Albert P and Co at this stage.

So what next for Boston and Atlanta? There will need be scapegoats, and some wags have suggested Red Sox wunderkind Theo Epstein may be in trouble. He conveniently held a press conference suggesting that “we don’t believe in scapegoats here” on Thursday, yet reports suggest that manager Terry Francona may be the one given up. Whether that will placate the Boston faithful is another matter – not least when one considers who would replace him?

As for the Braves, in their first post Bobby Cox season, it’s unlikely his replacement Fredi Gonzalez will be given the push as most of the team will come back in 2012 and it’s rich with young talent and Chipper Jones who will be 110 next year. Will the youngsters be scarred from this fallout or come back stronger?

Well, if I knew the answer to that, I would have put my house on Tampa and St. Louis making the playoffs back on September 1st. Or at the very least, my signed photo of Macho Man Randy Savage.

NAT COOMBS is a writer and broadcaster who hosts the chat show Talk of The Terrace on our partner channel ESPN, and both NFL & MLB coverage on BBC Radio Five Live. He also anchors the US sports podcast Americarnage and is a regular guest on ESPN Radio’s Fantasy Baseball Podcast. Follow Nat on Twitter

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NAT takes a candid look at one of the most improbable sports comebacks since Seabiscuit, as … like that legendary stallion … Michael Vick is again proving to be an NFL thoroughbred and a sporting hero.

In October 2007, I was at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta covering the Giants / Falcons game – my first live NFL broadcast from a stadium. It was notable for two things. Well, three, if you count my co-hosts’ singing karaoke in the hotel bar the night before.

Firstly, this was the Joey Harrington-era Falcons – and watching his hapless performance that night made him an instant cult hero in my book, representing, to near perfection, that fascinating example of a tremendous college athlete who just can’t get in going on in the big leagues. Poor Joey (not to be confused with the hapless Matt LeBlanc Friends’ spinoff) is the Hallmark Poster Boy for NFL underachievement.

NUMBER ONE: Vick was the overall first pick in 2001.

Secondly, there were the Michael Vick fans. In their thousands. I would guess that out of the Atlanta replica shirts I saw that day, every other one was Vick’s Number 7. What made this particularly odd was that Vick – the overall number pick out of Virginia Tech in 2001 – no longer played for the Falcons anymore: he was in prison! He’d pleaded guilty to his involvement in an illegal dog fighting ring – a crime which appalled America, and led to widespread vitriolic condemnation of the young athlete.

Yet here, on a balmy night in Georgia, the Vick apologists were defiant. They showed no concern about the implications of such a public show of support for someone who had been instantly vaulted into the “Top Ten All-Time List of Super Villains” by most of his 300 million animal-loving countrymen. It was paradoxically inexplicable, yet in some way explainable. Or to put it another way, I didn’t understand why anyone would want to champion this guy, but simultaneously understood why they were championing this guy. They had their reasons. I just didn’t agree with them.

Fast-forward four years and the apparent rehabilitation of Michael Vick has seen yet another chapter in his remarkable life. What’s most intriguing is the pace at which he’s been assimilated back into mainstream favor in the US: at least that’s the impression that we’re all being given.

Partly due to his staggeringly good performances last season notably his late season Monday Night, six TD demolition of the Redskins was the stuff of video game legend, with his setting on “Expert” and Washington on “Beginner.” Michael Dwayne Vick had seemingly found redemption.

NUMBER SEVEN: Vick runs the ball against his future employees.

His playing, while not nearly consistent enough for him to reckon in the “Best in the NFL” argument (outside of Fantasy Football aficionados), is at an ever-stronger level than it was before his incarceration. And Vick in Atlanta was a star, no doubt about it. We’ll overlook his recent comments, which indicated a bizarre naivety to his craft – suggesting that only now, after the best part of a decade in the NFL, that he would concentrate on reading Defenses. Which is a lot like an Olympic ski jump champion saying that he’s finally going to focus on “that bit when I’m airborne.”

Back when Vick (Federal Bureau of Prisons ID# 33765-183) was released from jail, and the Eagles – shockingly at the time – offered him a professional lifeline, there was a countrywide unease about their decision. Many commentators went on record as saying that Philly had put ambition before any kind of moral framework by offering him a contract.

Perhaps Vick’s innocuous first season back was the best thing that could have happened to him. He barely figured in the offense, and thus was able to keep out of the limelight and project humility, and a literal manifestation of keeping his head down, on the sidelines, cap on, clipboard in hand.

But it was last year – when he exploded back into our consciousness – when his playing ability seemed to supersede any other factors. It appeared that a combination of Vick playing well with the lack of any further off the field transgressions was enough for most of people to move on from, if not entirely forget, his past. Vick’s resurrection was doubly complete when he was voted the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl. How unlikely had that been just three years earlier when he was getting fitted for an orange prison jumpsuit?

NUMBER SIX: Vick put half a dozen TDs on the Skins in 2010

Of course, the polarizing argument was concentrated on the principle of allowing second chances; many of those advocating the position that everyone deserves one, with others suggested differently. In Vick’s situation, this division in opinion – evenly split at the start of his return – swiftly moved into an overwhelming majority of people supporting the former. He did the crime, did his time, so let him earn a dime.

Perhaps this perception of almost instant redemption is erroneous because the very nature of sports reporting, in most cases, is to concentrate on, well, sports. The social commentary is marginalized because the column inches stacked up on Vick didn’t have room for opinions other than those connected with his performance.

As such, the perception was created that Vick was back, playing well, and this is all that mattered. Life moves on. We’ve all moved on.

It may well be yet another product of our “faster, faster, more, more” generation. Great players become bad overnight. Bad teams become Super Bowl contenders after one shock win. Everything happens in super quick time.

There’s no doubt that 99.999% of people despise dog fighting, and Vick’s association in such an unpalatable pursuit will never be able to be rationally justified. Yet the gradual elimination of the subject in most references to him, coupled with Corporate America stirring into action via sponsorship deals, indicated that his actions were ancient history. Perhaps most telling was Vick’s selection as runner up in the online poll – where any current player could be nominated – to select the cover star to grace the cover of EA Games’ Madden NFL Game.

NUMBER SEVEN Redux: Vick battled boo-birds and Falcons last week.

His return to Atlanta, last Sunday, to play the Falcons was no less fascinating than the events that preceded it. Marred for him not only by the obvious booing from a number of Falcons fans who obviously refuse to forgive and forget, but also being forced to leave the game with concussion. The ‘Return of the Prodigal QB’ represented some form of closure on Vick’s past – or at least his unsavory departure from the Falcons – a logical full stop or coda to the whole affair.

Vick recently reflected on his career path while entertaining the idea of becoming a role model, “I’m appreciative of where I’m at … Kids should know that you should never count yourself out, but at the same time, don’t put yourself in a position where you have to make a miraculous comeback.”

Where the Vick story goes next is hard to predict – and it may well be that his actions after his NFL playing career will more clearly define Vick as a man, even if it’s almost entirely his athletic ability that has enabled him to move on thus far.

NAT COOMBS is a writer and broadcaster who hosts the chat show Talk of The Terrace on our partner channel ESPN, and both NFL & MLB coverage on BBC Radio Five Live. He also anchors the US sports podcast Americarnage and is a regular guest on ESPN Radio’s Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
Follow Nat on Twitter

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What is the future of the NFL on this side of the Atlantic? When will Europe host a regular season NFL game? And what does NFL commish Roger Goodell put in his hair? Nat Coombs puts some of these questions to Alistair Kirkwood, managing director of NFL UK. And the answers are very revealing. But first, picture this …

Close your eyes, and imagine. It’s January 2023. The grizzled, wily old Matt Ryan is attempting to drive his beloved Tokyo Tigers down the field one last time, one last push in the career of this five-time Pro Bowler, trying to make it back to the Super Bowl, trying to give himself one final shot at winning the big one.

As the rain pours steadily onto the Wembley Stadium grass, Peyton Manning, Head Coach of the London Lightning, calls a time out, and checks in with his Defensive Co-ordinator Champ Bailey, knowing an historic visit to Super Bowl LVI in Berlin could be blown with one Ryan downfield bomb to veteran AJ Green.

When the TV broadcast goes to commercial, you program Bones, your robotic pet miniature tiger, to fetch you a cold one from the fridge, and hologram call your brother in Malaysia, for his take on who’ll win.

ALISTAIR KIRKWOOD: "... need more regular season games ..."

Far fetched? Perhaps a little (though if there are any computer programmers out there that like the idea of Bones, hit me up on Twitter, and we’ll make it happen) … But there’s no doubt about it: The NFL has never been more international than it is right now. And whilst the rise of digital multi channel and the internet are major factors in the boom, there’s one man whose Jerry Maguire-style vision almost ten years ago, has contributed as much as anyone in developing the game globally.

Alistair Kirkwood is the Managing Director of NFL (UK) and has the not inconsiderable weight on his shoulders of following through an idea he pitched to Roger Goodell (prior to the latter becoming the NFL Commissioner) back in 2002. Kirkwood wanted to expand on how the NFL operated overseas, with one crucial distinction. The games played abroad had to matter.

“I saw the UK as a sleeping giant” says Kirkwood. “And London as a bridge to so many other places around Europe and around the world, economically, socially.”

Kirkwood convinced Goodell that the UK fanbase was there – as it is across many other European countries – but just hadn’t been galvanized in the way he knew they could be, specifically by bringing them regular season games, bona fide NFL match ups, as opposed to the charming but ultimately meaningless exhibition fixtures.

His conviction was borne out from witnessing firsthand the initial boom of the game across the UK in the 1980s and mirrored across the continent. More than anything, Kirkwood puts the fascination all things NFL at that time down to “an accident of circumstance”. He cites the choice of Channel 4 to televise the action in Britain as crucial – the new channel was keen to mark its card as distinctive, and thus championed a sport that the other traditional broadcasters may have eschewed.

“Furthermore the production values of the NFL were superior. There were larger than life characters, in bite-sized, half hour chunks.”

Live soccer – let alone televised sport as we know it today – was a very different beast too, with only a handful of games a season, and in a four channel market, sporting options for the UK viewer were limited. Factor in the British fascination with America – and specifically the Reagan/Michael J Fox/Wall Street era – as also a compelling factor; and it’s no surprise that the NFL was propelled into one of the most fashionable sports of the late 80s.

INTERNATIONAL SERIES: Transatlantic passion shows no sign of flagging.

Wembley Stadium in London was packed for back to back American Bowls, William Perry was rubbing shoulders with Kylie Minogue in the pop culture zeitgeist, kids all around middle England starting wearing Jim McMahon white sweatbands. The NFL had arrived in Europe. And as quickly as it came, it went.

“There were no foundations,” says Kirkwood, reflecting on what went wrong first time around. “There was stagnation. Things that were initially different and fresh weren’t moved on”

Indeed it’s this overwhelmingly progressive mindset that has driven Goodell, Kirkwood and their respective teams to where we are now: heading into a fifth successive International Series Game at Wembley (Tampa vs. Chicago) this October. [Click here for latest game day and ticket information]

“The NFL has often been way ahead of its time. In the 1960s revenue sharing was introduced to protect businesses. Owners gave loans to other owners; salary caps, free agency … there’s a clear history of the league being forward thinking and realizing they were custodians of the sport.

“Every sport needs to grow otherwise it will be marginalized. America will cap at some point. The NFL is regularly the Number One rated show in the US. To put it in perspective, the Super Bowl got about five times as many viewers as American Idol finale.”

Fair enough, but I point out to Kirkwood that because something reaches saturation point in one continent, it doesn’t necessarily translate that other continents will adopt it, too. The inverse is often true with the US – hence the phrase “breaking America.” An issue that is particularly exacerbated by how difficult it is to actively play the game.

“Not playing isn’t a barrier to being a fan. Sport that you play is very different to sport that you see. 93% of fans in the US have never been to a game. The NFL has been built up to be a TV phenom,” he says.

This is certainly an advantage in our digital era but the plan appears to be a combination of two factors – a reliance on the brave new world of technology, underpinned by good, old fashioned tactile live experience.

There’s a reliance on extensive international coverage (for example ESPN’s Monday Night Football is now seen in hundreds of countries worldwide) and news/knowledge arrives instantly via the web, regardless of whether you’re in Delaware or Delhi. But also, as with the International Series, the chance for that (newly acquired) fanbase to experience the superstars up close and personal, serves to galvanize many, the media being one key constituency.

FAN-TASTY FOOTBALL: Euro fans have huge appetite for the NFL

Which of course, takes me to the $64,000 question. A regular season game or two overseas is fine, but what does an international franchise depend on? Kirkwood is, unsurprisingly, pragmatic about it.

“We need to grow the fanbase three or four times. We’d need more regular season games to prove it can be handled operationally. But now there’s a 10 year Collective Bargaining Agreement, it allows a platform for long term thinking and planning”

I point out to him that one of the biggest pitfalls is surely that history has shown us that expansion franchises are traditionally poor for a good few years, and that interest may wane as a result. What happens when the honeymoon is over?

“We need to make sure that the fanbase is large enough and passionate about the sport and knowledgeable enough to know franchises may struggle in the early days. If they lack knowledge they will get frustrated more easily”

He gives the Detroit Lions as a good example of how teams can turn from zero’s to contenders in a few years, which will continue to have appeal when contrasted with the Premier League, or La Liga, both dominated by the same three or four teams every year.

Similarly, although the digital age gives global fans of the sport more access to information and greater content than ever before, in our “faster, faster, more, more” generation, where the quality of the product is the only way to ensure survival with so much choice on offer, the compelling soap opera that is the NFL will always have a populist, but credible sporting appeal.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at the first week of this season. We were told kick off returns would barely make a mark with the new ruling forcing the kicks to be taken on the 35-yard line. Up steps Packers’ rookie Randall Cobb, tying the NFL record with a 108-yard kick off return, which wasn’t so much “taken to the house” as sellotaped to the side of a Transformer and smashed through the patio window.

Or Cam Newton. He’s gonna bust, right? Out of his depth. It’s JaMarcus Russell all over again. Cue 422 yards, two TDS on debut and Carolina has a new hero. (And believe me, they need one!)

So … the next five years? When I ask Kirkwood what NFL fans across continental Europe should expect, his answer is interesting.

“Our message to fans in Europe is that we’ve learnt that if you spread yourself too thin you are less likely to succeed. London should be viewed as ‘if it works there more likely elsewhere.’ ”

Which had me wondering. Why stop at one international franchise, when you could have multiple? (and by the way, I’ve already patented the Egyptian franchise name Cairo Caddyshacks, so hands off)

And if you think that’s far fetched, just picture the look on the face of someone like Tom Landry or Vince Lombardi if you’d told them; all those years ago, that their players would be able to take in a quick tour of Buckingham Palace on the eve of a Week 7 game.

VIDEO: ESPN TV debate with ‘Professor’ John Clayton on the NFL’s first international franchise.

Whatever happens, the future of the game internationally is going to be intriguing. And I may just be interviewing Coach Manning for this column in 15 years time. Though obviously this blog will be projected directly into your mind without the need for, y’know, words and computers.

NAT COOMBS is a writer and broadcaster who hosts the chat show Talk of The Terrace on our partner channel ESPN, and both NFL & MLB coverage on BBC Radio Five Live. He also anchors the US sports podcast Americarnage and is a regular guest on ESPN Radio’s Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
Follow Nat on Twitter
Click here for the NFL UK website

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Viewers in Europe can watch the NFL season and ESPN’s Monday Night Football. Click here for more details.
Viewers in the UK and Ireland can tune in to NFL Monday Night Football on ESPN. Click here for more details.

The NCAA College Football season is also available throughout Europe on ESPN America. Click here for details.

As the lockout engendered by the CBA ran and ran, it dawned on me that there was a very real chance that I wouldn’t be writing this particular column, and in the absence of football, I’d be previewing the 2011 National Finals Rodeo, held, somewhat unsurprisingly, in Vegas. (Although they do say you haven’t lived till you spend your day between some high-end calf roping and the blackjack table)

Fortunately – for all of us without the nickname Bucky – NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith (a guy so serious that he’s known as DeMaurice Smith to his friends) and the NFL owners managed to thrash out a deal, and we’ve got ourselves a season. And in many respects, the delay, and disruption to typical off-season preparations, has added to the very real promise that this is the widest open season in memory. Don’t get carried away Bills fans. I’m not talking about you.

AFC CHAMPIONS: Who'll meet in this season's Championship Game?

Everything has been speeded up – and it’s probably the only example when pace isn’t necessarily a positive in the NFL. Take the Free Agency dealing for example. When it eventually kicked in, players pinged around the league at such an alarming rate that there must have been more than a few cases of panic buying or mistaken identity. There just has to have been. I’ve spent 57 straight hours trying to work it out, and there’s just no other way of explaining Carolina signing Derek Anderson.

The delay to the Free Agency market meant the Draft was so predictable and risk averse that we were all pleading for something bizarre to happen – like the Raiders eccentric owner Al Davis trading his 2nd, 3rd & 4th round picks for the Number 1 overall pick and subsequently selecting Cuba Gooding Jr.

Playbooks have been distributed so late that the net effect has been more cramming in the NFL in one month than the night before final exams on every single American college campus combined in the history of academia.

All of this serves to blow the field wide open, and, much like most of us the morning after on New Years Day, my glance at some of the runners and (rodeo) riders in the American Football Conference, throws up one or two surprises.

SERIOUS CONTENDERS (FOR THE SUPER BOWL)

PATRIOT ACT: Tom meets some new recruits for the season?

One of the most curious aspects of last season was how good a record the New England Patriots posted in the regular season (14-2) when ultimately, as the Jets managed to prove, there seemed to be significant holes in their roster. In other words: they found a way to win, even though they weren’t the finished article. Belichick & Co grabbed the headlines by adding Big Albert Haynesworth and Chad Johnson – both marquee names, both on the wrong side of their career, but two players that will benefit greatly from being surrounded by winners (coming from Washington and Cincy respectively). No doubt added bite to the pass rush and a downtown receiver will sharpen the Pats, but perhaps their best signing was the new deal agreed with Tom Brady’s “bodyguard.” In a passing orientated offense that depends so much on pace and timing and protecting the quarterback, LT Matt Light may well be the most essential component after the supermodel marrying phenom. Favorites for a reason.

The Patriots’ biggest threat will come from interdivisional rivals the New York Jets. Losers in the last two AFC Championship games, there’s a feeling around Rex Ryan’s Gang Green that it’s Win or Bust this year. So much rests on the shoulders of QB Mark Sanchez (second only to Wayne Rooney in the “Sports Star Who is Much Younger Than You Realize” Award). The USC alumni was the number five pick overall in the 2009 draft – so this is only his third full season. Simplistic as it may seem, the Jets’ year probably all comes to how well Sanchez develops this year. The ‘loss’ of the inconsistent Braylon Edwards, replaced by veteran receivers Derrick Mason and Plaxico Burress, will help determine how that story plays out. But expect the Jets to be there or thereabouts for a third straight year.

Last season’s (AFC) champs the Pittsburgh Steelers remain strong, and remember, they made it all the way despite not having Big (Bad) Ben Roethlisberger for the first quarter of last season. There is a sense that the offense is ageing – when your star receiver decides to go on Dancing With The Stars, start to worry – but don’t read too much into the O-Line’s overhaul – Flozell Adams and Max Starks making way for Willie Colon and Jonathan Scott. The Steelers formidable LB core and some added youth to the D-Line and Secondary – means that the Steel Curtain defense will once again make them bona fide contenders.

DARK HORSES
The difference between Longshots and Dark Horses is best explained thus: Christian Bale is a dark horse to be the next James Bond (not the favorite, but a credible contender) whereas Russell Crowe is a longshot. It’s not completely impossible (say, P. Diddy as 007) but it’s a reach. With that in mind, the Indianapolis Colts lead teams that are snapping at the heels of the favorites, and may just sneak in to the Big Game.

PEYTON'S PLACE: Kerry Collins may step into Manning's big-priced shoes.

There’s been much excitement this off-season in Indianapolis, not because The Scorpions World Tour was rolling into town, but because “The Franchise” Peyton Manning signed a new deal making him the best paid QB in the league. A lot of responsibility, even on his broad shoulders, which may explain the problems he is now having with his neck. An injury that has forced the Colts to bring in veteran Kerry Collins as a back up, and could well see Manning miss the early part of the season. Seeing as they have both Houston on the road and a visit from the Steelers in the first three games, the Colts success this year may well depend on whether Manning gets back in time

It’s hard not to like the Baltimore Ravens – a solid, stable franchise, not particularly fashionable, but always in the mix. There are no shortage of stars on both sides of the ball – legendary LB Ray Lewis and his padwan Terrell Suggs, the toughest receiver in the game Anquan Boldin and new addition, the mightily impressive Lee Evans. Like Sanchez, the jury is still out on whether young QB Joe Flacco is an elite player – the book on him is that he struggles with complex coverages – although the defense led by Lewis, but spearheaded by the formidable Haloti Ngata, will keep him competitive in most games.

Over the last few years improvement, the Houston Texans are the trendy pick preseason and every year they flatter to deceive, but all may work out this year in Texas. If they win the games they should, then they will have enough to get into the playoffs. With an offense that features bona fide stars Andre Johnson (WR) and Arian Foster (RB) along with the consistent QB Matt Schaub calling the shots, they’ll be a serious threat come the knockout stages. Former Cowboys’ Head Coach Wade Phillips is introducing a 3-4 defense, which sees former Number One Draft Pick Mario Williams, moving from Defensive End to (outside) Linebacker and will be even more of a sack factor.

LONGSHOT

MATT FINISH: Chiefs' QB Cassel will lead a potent offense.

The Kansas City Chiefs made the playoffs last year, so may be aggrieved to be considered a longshot in my round up, but we’re talking about who’s going to make the Super Bowl, and in that respect, don’t crack into the kids’ college fund to place a bet on them quite yet. Mind you, they have a puncher’s chance and the addition of two wideouts – hugely underrated Steve Breaston and first round pick Jonathan Baldwin – to support superstar Dwayne Bowe and 2nd year TE Tony Moeaki makes their aerial offense more than appealing. Indeed QB Matt Cassel is starting to deliver on his big bucks contract – but no surprise there when you consider his schooling (USC & New England). Buster Douglas, anyone?

RANK OUTSIDERS
How do I put this? Billy Ray Cyrus has more chance of headlining the main stage at the next Glastonbury Festival than the Cincinnati Bengals have of making the Super Bowl.

ROOKIES TO WATCH
It’s a tough season for rookies – who’ve had so much less time to prepare for the step up in class than they normally would. Typically offensive players need more time to adjust – certainly in the case of WR’s and QB’s – but both AJ Green (Bengals) and Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville) are worth keeping an eye on. Green has all the goods and it’s always fascinating to see if receivers will boom or bust, and while Gabbert, who was selected way higher than many predicted, is the backup at the time of writing, don’t be surprised if he gets thown in at the deep end at some point this season. Ditto Tennessee’s Jake Locker who’ll get some time if the Titans fall out the race early.

Marcell Dareus (Bills) can play DT and DE, and he’ll lean quickly from Bills Pro Bowl DT Kyle Williams so expect him to be visible as Buffalo’s defense gets worked out. Another new name to watch is JJ Watt (Houston) – who is apparently surpassing expectations so far and thriving in Wade Phillips’ new look defense.

COMEBACK PLAYERS

HANGING CHAD?: Can Henne rise to the heights the Dolphins expect?

Following his incarceration, Plaxico Burress’ move to the New York Jets has all the hallmarks of comeback written all over it, particularly as Michael Vick paved the way for that particular story. Although if Burress’ ageing frame doesn’t stand up to the rigors of a tough season, this could well the type of sequel that has none of the original stars returning, going straight to DVD. Chad Johnson may well have a huge year in New England, but will need to get sharper on his route running that his unmotivated recent years in Cincy have seen, as Brady’s laser sharp precision demands no margin for error. The romantic in me would like much maligned Chad Henne to shut up his critics and fire Miami into the playoffs (and I suspect he’ll have a better season than many suggest)

FANTASY LOCK
Arian Foster is the fashionable pick, Andre Johnson is going to be huge but I have two words for you: Tom Brady. I always build my Fantasy Team (Reno Rehab) around him, year in year out. Ignore the fact I usually come sixth. He’s the sure thing.

THE 2012 AFC CHAMPION WILL BE…
Very close to call, but I’m stumping for the New England Patriots. Mind you, ask me next week, and I’ll have a new winner.

So there you go. Everything you need to know about the AFC ahead of the 2011 season. Well, maybe not everything. But enough to whet your appetite. I’ll leave you a name you may not have heard – Clint Cannon. My rodeo buddies tell me he’s a lock for the 2011 title this year. You heard it here first!

Next blog, Nat previews the winners and losers from NFC and which players to watch.

Follow Nat on Twitter

LIVE AMERICAN FOOTBALL ON ESPN AMERICA

Viewers in Europe can watch the NFL season and ESPN’s Monday Night Football – Click here for more details.
While viewers in the UK and Irleand can tune in to NFL Monday Night Football on ESPN. Click here for more details.

The NCAA College Football season is also available throughout Europe on ESPN America – Click here for details.

NAT COOMBS is a writer and broadcaster who hosts the chat show Talk of The Terrace on our partner channel ESPN, and both NFL & MLB coverage on BBC Radio Five Live. He also anchors the US sports podcast Americarnage and is a regular guest on ESPN Radio’s Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

After last week’s deductive reasoning – that was more Priest Holmes than Sherlock – saw Nat tip the Patriots to win the AFC, he now turns his attention to naming the NFC champion for this season.

Far from being the ubiquitous “difficult second album”, or the sequel featuring none of the original stars (Dumb & Dumberer, anyone?) putting together the second part of my NFL Season Preview was a relatively painless experience. Until I realized that the Saints’ Shaun ‘Big Baby’ Rogers might actually want to physically hurt me after reading it.

As with the AFC I’ve broken down some of the runners and riders, with the following category qualifications:
Serious Contenders: Frazier or Ali
Dark Horses: Foreman or Holyfield
Long Shots: Rocky Balboa in Rocky or Rocky 2
Rank Outsiders: The cold meat cuts that Balboa punches in a freezer whilst he’s training

SERIOUS CONTENDERS
Forget their own conference, the Philadelphia Eagles were the NFL’s big movers in Free Agency, which is pretty impressive given the fact that this year’s wheeling and dealing was more frenetic and speedy than the Jamaican 4x100m team doing practice drills on a bus being driven by Sandra Bullock.

VICKTORIOUS?: Can Michael lead the Eagles to Super Sunday success?

As such, they’re going into the season with more hype than a Jennifer Aniston rom-com, and while those stories never turn out very well (see the Dallas Cowboys last five seasons), it’d take a brave tipster to back against the new look Eagles going deep into the playoffs this year.

Nobody saw them coming in for arguably the best available player on the market: corner Nnamdi Asomugha – particularly given the fact they’d picked up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb trade, and already had Asante Samuel on the roster. These trades made Philly owners of the most fearsome set of corners since The Wire. And yes, they replaced Kolb at backup – to the $100m Michael Vick – with the more than capable, if slightly complex, Vince Young.

With quick-strike weapons like DeSean Jackson, ‘Shady’ McCoy and another new recruit Ronnie Brown all in the mix to help Vick – not to mention that, rather like the Williams sisters the NFC East just isn’t as formidable as it used to be so – it’s looking rather bright in Philly.

While the aforementioned Young modestly referred to his new teammates as “the dream team,” the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers have been going quietly about their business.

This is a team – with the possible exception of QB Aaron Rodgers – that is not made up of superstars, but solid, impressive pros that work together and keep the razzmatazz to a minimum (Lambeau Leap aside). Put it this way – there’s more chance of me pulling on a Packers’ uniform than the likes of professional flashionistas TO or Chad Johnson ending up in Wisconsin.

Crucially the Green and Gold managed to re-sign a number of key players to new deals – particularly in unfashionable positions like kicker (Mason Crosby) and fullback (John Kuhn). The return of running back Ryan Grant – who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in week one last season – is effectively a new signing, and he’ll split time with last season’s breakthrough RB James Starks. Rodgers has developed into one of the most assured passers in the game and the effectively run Pack has a real sense of dynasty about them.

The New Orleans Saints, champs two years ago are still a very dangerous act. The impact of losing Reggie Bush to Miami shouldn’t be exaggerated, particularly as the hugely underrated Darren Sproles comes in and will strike terror into defenses straight away. With the Peyton/Brees combo fast becoming one of the NFL’s great Coach/QB tandems, a favorable schedule which sees four out their last six of games at home, and the introduction of 350 pound Shaun Rogers at DT – a player just marginally smaller than the island of Elba – the Saints are well and truly in the argument this year once again.

DARK HORSES

RYANITIS: Matt is stuffed by the Pack in last year's title game.

I love Matt Ryan. Not in a “Let’s get the next plane to Vegas and find a Tony Bennett impersonator that’ll marry us in minutes” kind of way. But he’s the real deal, and this may just be his year. Composed and clinical, (how else do you earn the nickname “Matty Ice”?) the Atlanta Falcons have gone “all-in” with their mega-gamble trade up to grab highly-touted wide out Julio Jones at Number 6 overall costing them plenty. It was the Pack that derailed them in the playoffs last year, and another post-season slugfest is almost as inevitable as a barmy Al Davis’ pick at next year’s Draft.

The Dallas Cowboys are quietly going about their business – which is an alien concept for both the franchise, and the rest of the NFL community. Last year they were hotly tipped and finished 6-10. This year, no-one really fancies them, but I think they may go deep, particularly with a fresh Tony Romo ready to show the world why he got such a big bucks deal, and the impressive Jason Garrett more established in the Head Coaching role. Much will depend on how their new look O-Line holds up protecting Romo. Cutting Pro Bowl center Andre Gurode may prove to be a big mistake – but a relatively easy schedule means they’ll reverse last season’s record and have a fighting chance.

LONG SHOTS
The 2011 version of the Detroit Lions are representative of one of the most remarkable aspects of the NFL. If, three years ago after their record-breaking 0-16 season, you said out loud that they’d be contenders for the Super Bowl you’d have been laughed out of town more quickly than a Vespa at a Hell’s Angels’ stag night.

The beauty of being bad for a couple of seasons – in the Lions case about 20 – is that you’re empowered to rebuild, via the draft. With two decades of practice, the Lions have, in the most part, chosen wisely: step forward Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh – both overall No. 2 picks.

SUHNAMI: Ndamukong is a tidal wave of destruction.

This year, they’re very much the trendy pick and whether they will reward the pundits who have reached on picking them to go all the way depends on the health of 2009’s No. 1 pick Matt Stafford. No doubt he’s the real deal, when he’s playing that is. The injury-prone Lions drafted Nick Fairley (a relatively lowly 13th overall pick last year) to play alongside Suh, but he’s broken his foot. Must be something in the (Lake) Michigan water, eh? Yes, the Lions could get to the Promised Land, but it’s a big ask. Next year may be their time.

RANK OUTSIDERS
In the same way it’s so hard to chose the greatest Steven Seagal film, I can’t pick one team with no chance in a conference with so many – well, there anyway. So, my joint winners of the “There’s more chance of Miley Cyrus duetting with Liam Gallagher than this team winning the Super Bowl Awards” are the Redskins, 49ers and Seahawks. Ugly just isn’t nearly strong enough.

ROOKIES TO WATCH
All eyes will be on this year’s Number 1 overall pick Cam Newton, who has polarized opinion on a scale not seen since a Republican rookie named Sarah Palin first entered our consciousness. No doubt Cameron has all the physical attributes but the ghost of JaMarcus Russell haunts us all. Handed the starting role over previous incumbent Jimmy Clausen, Carolina fans will be waiting with bated breath to see if their new No.1 (also his jersey number) is a boom or a bust.

Many smarter than I at such things rate the Cardinals’ Patrick Peterson as a future Pro Bowler, though Prince Amukamara, the Giants’ new corner may prove to be the value pick of this year’s Draft having been taken 19th overall.

COMEBACK PLAYERS
The aforementioned Ryan Grant and Matt Stafford both had tough years with injury last time around, so could be strong bounce backs. After the humiliation he weathered following limping out of the Bears’ NFC Championship defeat, Jay Cutler needs a career season.

A.P.RECIATIVE: Peterson will benefit from McNabb's wise counseling.

But my surprise pick is Vince Young, who is one play away (or snapped ACL) from being the most crucial piece in many people’s Super Bowl faves. Stranger things have happened, fans.

FANTASY LOCK
Rodgers and Vick are slugging it out as the number 1 pick for most QBs but the safe play has to be Adrian Peterson. Even though the Vikes won’t be in the running (every pun intended), the introduction of Donovan McNabb at QB is a smart move, and AP will benefit most. Don’t believe the hype – he’s still the most complete RB in the league, and RBs = mega fantasy points.

The 2011/12 NFC CHAMPION WILL BE …
I don’t just think Green Bay will win the NFC, I think they’ll go on to repeat last year’s World Championship, beating the Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in February. A statement that will now become bulletin board material for all their NFC rivals. Just nobody show this to Shaun Rogers, OK? We’ll make it our little secret.

Last blog, Nat previews the AFC.
Next blog, Nat interviews Alistair Kirkwood – Managing Director of NFL UK.

NAT COOMBS is a writer and broadcaster who hosts the chat show Talk of The Terrace on our partner channel ESPN, and both NFL & MLB coverage on BBC Radio Five Live. He also anchors the US sports podcast Americarnage and is a regular guest on ESPN Radio’s Fantasy Baseball Podcast. Follow Nat on Twitter

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